MLB Odds, Trends, Best Bets: April 18, 2019
San Francisco Giants @ Washington Nationals 1:05PM/EST
Drew Pomeranz vs. Patrick Corbin
Moneyline: Giants +180/Nationals -220
Spread: Giants +1.5 (-115)/Nationals -1.5 (-105)
Total Runs: Over 8 (-120)/Under 8 (+100)
The Nationals elected to spend a chunk of their money that was saved from losing Bryce Harper in free agency to bolster their already exceptional starting staff. Patrick Corbin arrives in the nation’s capital with a new 6-year $140MM contract. The southpaw has three no-decisions in 2019, but has thrown very well despite it, logging a 2.84 ERA in 19 innings with 24 Ks. Corbin was in the NL West with Arizona prior, so he is no stranger to the team by the bay. A few Giants have extended at-bats and solid numbers against Corbin (Buster Posey 10/34, Yangervis Solarte 6/16, Brandon Crawford 9/31 with 2 homers), but he still managed to dominate them in 2018. He went 3-1 in six starts against San Francisco last season with a 2.27 ERA and a 0.81 WHIP.
The Giants will roll out newly signed Drew Pomeranz to face the Nationals. The lefty was fantastic for Boston in 2017, but he fell off hard in 2018 with his walk totals inflating. He has been decent so far, compiling a 3.86 ERA in 14 innings for the Giants. The Nationals’ lineup has limited at-bats against Pomeranz, making this an interesting match. The red hot Anthony Rendon will look to continue to carry the Washington offense.
Toronto Blue Jays @ Minnesota Twins 1:10PM/EST
Clay Buchholz vs. Michael Pineda
Moneyline: Blue Jays +155/Twins -185
Spread: Blue Jays +1.5 (-125)/Twins -1.5 (+105)
Total Runs: Over 8.5 (-110)/Under 8.5 (-110)
Minnesota’s Michael Pineda is back after spending 2018 on the shelf recovering from Tommy John surgery. Pineda was infamously traded for top catching prospect Jesus Montero back in 2012. The deal ended up being a wash, as both players struggled in their own right. Pineda has logged 3 starts in 2019, going 2-0 with a 3.0 ERA in 15 innings. The Twins have won all three games behind him. Look for that trend to continue today.
Clay Buchholz got a fresh start in Arizona last season after an injury plagued 2018 and awful 2017 season. He made the most of it, and in 16 starts for the Diamondbacks he went 7-2 with a 2.01 ERA. He was only able to secure one major league offer in free agency this offseason, landing him in Toronto. Buchholz has lost a lot of velocity on his fastball, but his location has clearly been a focal point for him. He allowed 1 run on 6 hits in 6 innings against Tampa Bay in his lone start this season, walking none.
The Twins’ offense has the third best batting average in the AL at the moment, constantly setting the table for runs. The Blue Jay’s offense is near the bottom in run production. This makes the under an intriguing bet. Toronto can’t wait to have baseball’s top hitting prospect in their lineup sooner than later, as Vladimir Guerrero Jr. continues to rehab in the minors.
Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers 1:10PM/EST
Ivan Nova vs. Tyson Ross
Moneyline: White Sox /Tigers
Spread: White Sox ()/Tigers ()
Total Runs: Over ()/Under ()
Ivan Nova comes into his age 32 season with a career 4.27 ERA. He has continued that trend for his new club, giving up 9 runs in 15.1 innings for the White Sox this season. Detroit had the worst offense in the AL last season and Nova was able to capitalize on that when he faced them. He cruised over 13 innings and allowed just 2 runs. The Detroit offense hasn’t improved since, so despite Nova’s awful numbers in general, this isn’t a game to bet against Chicago.
The Tigers send out veteran Tyson Ross to make his fourth start of 2019. He currently has a 3.5 ERA in 18 innings, but it seems he’s been a bit lucky given his 9 base on balls. The Chicago offense has largely improved thanks to hot starts by Tim Beckham and Yoan Moncada. Detroit has lost five straight and scored just 12 runs in those games. They are who we thought they were.
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Milwaukee Brewers 8:10PM/EST
Julio Urias vs. Zach Davies
Moneyline: Dodgers -130/Brewers +110
Spread: Dodgers -1.5 (+135)/Brewers +1.5 (-160)
Total Runs: Over 9.5 (+100)/Under 9.5 (-120)
The young and very talented Julio Urias will toe the rubber against a powerhouse offense in Milwaukee. The Dodgers have failed to make a major trade at numerous deadlines because they refuse to discuss the lefty in any deal. Urias will move to the bullpen when Rich Hill gets back to hone his skills and harness his control. In three starts this season, Urias has a 5.27 ERA in 13.2 innings with 13 Ks and 5 walks. The best bet here is the over. The Dodgers’ offensive production has been atop the NL with Milwaukee not far behind.
Zach Davies is 2-0 in three starts this season for the Brewers with a stellar 1.53 ERA. Pitching to contact is Davies’ game, so maybe this isn’t the best matchup for him. He didn’t face Los Angeles last season, but there are three Dodgers that have a home run in their career against him (Cody Bellinger, Justin Turner, Corey Seager). Both teams are off to tremendous starts as expected. Look for this to be a bullpen game early on for both teams.
Philadelphia Phillies @ Colorado Rockies 8:40PM/EST
Zach Eflin vs. Kyle Freeland
Moneyline: Phillies -115/Rockies -105
Spread: Phillies -1.5 (+135)/Rockies +1.5 (-160)
Total Runs: Over 11 (-105)/Under 11 (-115)
The Rockies find themselves at the bottom of the NL West to start 2019. They have their ace going in a series opener against the Phillies. After a brilliant 2018, Kyle Freeland has struggled in the early going. He has an eye popping 5.4 ERA in 21.2 innings in 2019. He didn’t face the Phillies last season and they have very limited at-bats against him. The Colorado offense is averaging just over 3 runs per game right now, but maybe Nolan Arenado’s recent hot streak of a homer in three straight games will help others relax. Don’t bet on this team until they get back on track.
Zach Eflin was lit up for 6 runs in 4 innings against a sluggish Miami offense last weekend. He had allowed just 1 run in 12 innings going into that game. It’s hard to know what you’re going to get from Eflin each start. Colorado tagged him for 5 runs in 2.2 innings last season. The slumping Charlie Blackmon is 4/7 with 2 long balls in his career against Eflin, Trevor Story is 2/5, and Nolan Arenado is 2/8. The safest bet seems like the over even with the Rockies’ offense struggling. The new look Philadelphia offense ranks among the best in the NL in 2019.
Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels 10:07PM/EST
Felix Hernandez vs. Chris Stratton
Moneyline: Mariners +105/Angels -125
Spread: Mariners +1.5 (-190)/Angels -1.5 (+160)
Total Runs: Over 9.5 (-110)/Under 9.5 (-110)
Chris Stratton threw his first full season in 2018 as a member of the Giants. He had low strike out numbers and a 5.09 ERA in 145 innings. He has yet to make it 5 innings in three starts with Los Angeles this season, tallying a 5.54 ERA in 13 innings. The Seattle offense leads the AL in many offensive categories, so don’t expect this to be a smooth outing for the inexperienced Stratton.
Felix Hernandez is coming off his worst season as a pro with an inflated ERA of 5.55 in 28 starts for Seattle. He got clobbered by Los Angeles last season, allowing 12 runs in 8.1 innings in two starts. It’s hard to envision this game going king Felix’s way, as he has given up 6 earned runs in 12.1 innings in 2019. Mike Trout is 16/47 in his career against Hernandez with 7 homers. The Seattle offense will need to continue to crush the ball like they have lately. Take the over.
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres 10:10PM/EST
Tanner Roark vs. Chris Paddack
Moneyline: Reds +140/Padres -165
Spread: Reds +1.5 (-165)/Padres -1.5 (+140)
Total Runs: Over 7.5 (-105)/Under 7.5 (-115)
The 5-12 Cincinnati Reds come stumbling into this series after losing three straight against the Dodgers. The offense is underachieving as a whole without Scooter Gennett. Surprisingly, the Reds have the third best team ERA in the NL. Cincinnati has lost seven games by two runs or less in 2019.
The rollercoaster ride that is Tanner Roark will take on rookie Chris Paddack. Roark was up and down in his six seasons with Washington. He totaled a 4+ ERA in his past two seasons. He has a 4.3 ERA in 14.2 innings in 2019. Chris Paddack has been a nice surprise for San Diego, pitching his way to a 1.29 ERA with 16 Ks in 14 innings. Neither offense has experience against the opposition making the under a somewhat safe pick.
The Padres are off to a nice start after a thrilling offseason. The San Diego offense has already showed improvement from last season and their pitching staff has accumulated the fourth best ERA in the NL. They’ll look to beat up on a Reds team that’s down in the dumps right now. I like the Padres in this one.
The post MLB Odds, Trends, Best Bets: April 18, 2019 appeared first on QL Wire.