MLB Betting Picks: April 12, 2019
We’ve got a slate with more questions than answers… Can Carlos Carrasco get get right? What’s going on with Zack Wheeler? Can rookie phenoms Chris Paddack and Trent Thornton keep it rolling? Will the Mariners keep hitting like the 1927 Yankees?
But there are two games that really stand out as the best bets on the night so let’s make some money.
Moneyline: TB +140 TOR +130
Run line: TB -1.5 (+110) TOR +1.5 (-130)
The Rays will be sending opener Ryan Stanek to the mound without clarity on who the follower will be, but with Charlie Morton and Blake Snell slated to start the next two games of the series they’ll have the entirety of their shutdown bullpen at Kevin Cash’s disposal.
The Rays’ run protection remains unbelievable and the Blue Jays offense, when not facing a struggling Red Sox rotation, is pretty damn bad.
Rookie right hander Trent Thornton has been nothing short of spectacular in his first two major league outings, but those came against the decidedly toothless Tigers and Indians lineups. Today he’s facing a Tampa Bay offense that his been surprisingly competent on the season with Austin Meadows and Tommy Pham finally fulfilling the potential that had been hoped for in their Pittsburgh and St. Louis.
Definitely take the Rays and, if you’re a believer in Thornton and his gaudy 12.4% whiff rate, consider the under as well.
Moneyline: BAL +222 BOS -250
Run line: BAL +1.5 (+110) BOS -1.5 (-130)
Boston has been shockingly bad to start the season. Their pitching has been atrocious, their offense has gone missing for several games at a time and the national hot take artists have been dancing gleefully on the grave of the defending world champions’ season.
But baseball is a marathon, not a sprint. The level of variance is such that it’s difficult to gage a team’s true level over fifty games, let alone the first 13 contests of a season.
Boston’s sending Eduardo Rodriguez to the hill tonight with a 12.38 ERA, but he’s a much better pitcher than that putrid number would suggest. In addition to carrying a 3.82 ERA in 2018, ERod’s been incredibly unlucky to start the season. He has a .452 BABIP where his career mark is .296. He season’s strand rate is 52.1%, but 73.4% for his career. His homerun to flyball ratio? You get the idea… Rodriguez is off to a slow start that’s been compounded by a metric ton of bad luck.
When the Red Sox are at the plate, the get to tee off on David Hess who’s surrendered a .330/.450/.879 slashline to Boston’s active roster over the past two seasons. This is a get right spot for a Red Sox offense that could put double digits on the board this evening.
Take Boston tonight and if you’re playing daily fantasy, make sure that JD Martinez is part of your Boston stacks as he’s 2-2 with two home runs and two walks in four plate appearances against the Baltimore right hander.
Moneyline: PHI -150 MIA +145
Run line: PHI -1.5 (-105) MIA +1.5 (-115)
On the surface this looks to be a great spot for Jake Arrieta who carries a 2.77 ERA into the pitcher friendly Miami park to face an anemic Marlins offense, but I wouldn’t touch this game as there are a lot of red flags in Arrieta’s 2019 profile. He has a 6.62xFIP and his swinging strike rate — a number that stabilizes over a small sample — has plummeted to a career low 4.4%
Has a late scratch sent you scrambling for answers? Looking for a sharp GPP pivot or want to debate a matchup? Reach me on Twitter (@TheHyperCritic) for the advice you need to be profitable.
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