Yankees vs. Twins Division Series Game 1 Chat

Baseball News
2 weeks ago

6:48
Meg Rowley: Hey everyone — thanks for joining us. We’ll get started right around first pitch, but feel free to drop your questions in before that. Go baseball!

6:50
Josh Herzenberg: Yankees lineup (Paxton on the mound): DJ LeMahieu (R) 1B
Aaron Judge (R) RF
Brett Gardner (L) CF
Edwin Encarnacion (R) DH
Giancarlo Stanton (R) LF
Gleyber Torres (R) 2B
Gary Sanchez (R) C
Didi Gregorius (L) SS
Gio Urshela (R) 3B

6:50
Josh Herzenberg: Twins lineup (Berrios on the mound): Mitch Garver (R) C
Jorge Polanco (S) SS
Nelson Cruz (R) DH
Eddie Rosario (L) RF
Miguel Sano (R) 3B
Max Kepler (L) CF
Marwin Gonzalez (S) LF
C.J. Cron (R) 1B
Luis Arraez (L) 2B

6:52
Josh Herzenberg: Jay (who will be joining us here to chat a little bit later) wrote the preview for this series, which can be found here if you haven’t read it already: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/postseason-preview-new-york-yankees-vs-min…

7:05
Josh Herzenberg: Alright folks, let get this thing rolling

7:05
Nico Robin: over/under on 5 HRs per game this series?

7:06
Josh Herzenberg: I’ll take the under because that’s what math says. Personally, I’d love to see the over. Home runs are fun

7:07
Meg Rowley: That my reaction was not immediately, five! that’s impossible! is an indication that 2019 has gone somewhat off the rails.

7:07
Guest: Costas and Smoltz?  That’s a real bummer, man.

7:07
Hugh: Over/under on 3 anti-analytics comments by Smoltz within the first inning?

7:08
Josh Herzenberg: I’m thinking there’ll be some professional hitters during this game as well

7:09
Meg Rowley: Broadcasting is very, very hard, and I don’t envy anyone the task of having to be engaging and well-spoken for three hours (and not swear!) but it does feel like we could perhaps staff these booths with folks who might be able to meet the current state of the game with greater enthusiasm mixed in with valid critique.

7:09
Matt: Yanks going to mercy rule the Twins, right?

7:10
Meg Rowley: They’re favored in this game, but these two teams are pretty evenly matched, and not so dissimilar in their construction, etc.

7:10
Paul: A catcher and a 1B being the two leadoff hitters gives me more satisfaction than it should.

7:11
Josh Herzenberg: 2019!

7:11
Meg Rowley: add Garver to the list of things I did not see coming this season

7:13
Nico Robin: and there’s the first one already

7:13
Meg Rowley: One down.

7:13
Meg Rowley: (sorry, all the yankees fans are beautiful, my interface hung)

7:14
Josh Herzenberg: *considers scrolling back up and editing my comment*

7:14
Howard: Over 5

7:16
Meg Rowley:

How many HRs will be hit in this game?

1 (0% | 0 votes)
 
2 (0% | 0 votes)
 
3 (0% | 0 votes)
 
4 (26.0% | 6 votes)
 
5 (17.3% | 4 votes)
 
5< (56.5% | 13 votes)
 

Total Votes: 23
7:17
Meg Rowley: Sometimes I think about how James Paxton and Nelson Cruz are playing postseason baseball and Félix is sitting at home and then I don’t do work for a little while

7:18
Dystopian Future: Things are getting interesting in the ninth in Atlanta, as the Cardinals now have the tying run at the plate in the form of Yadier Molina.

7:19
5 Run Homer: Every time I give up on a cardinals-braves game, they get interesting

7:20
Meg Rowley: This is one of the very best days of baseball, though I end up being very, very tired by the end of it.

7:20
Meg Rowley: A friend of mine yesterday encouraged me to pace myself for the postseason — I have done a bad job.

7:21
Meg Rowley: Molina strikes out — two gone in the ninth

7:21
Matt: Any idea how many nerd casts they are doing for this post season? Those are great.

7:22
Meg Rowley: Just confirmed with Petriello that they’re done for the year — the NerdCast is an ESPN thing, and they don’t have anymore games so…

7:23
Matt: Bummer.

7:24
Meg Rowley: Agreed — it is quite good.

7:25
Guest: Anyone else joining from FG for NYY/MIN?

7:25
Meg Rowley: Jay will be along in a bit, and Josh is here (say hi Josh)

7:25
Josh Herzenberg: hi

7:26
Josh Herzenberg: Quick note on the broadcast: Smoltz is right about Berrios’s breaking ball movement — his horizontal movement on his curveball this year was 70% better than league average. Both Berrios and Paxton throw with a lot of angle and generate above average horizontal movement

7:26
Josh Herzenberg: Both of them generally have below average spin rates on all their pitches

7:27
Nico Robin: hi josh

7:27
Josh Herzenberg: Hello Nico

7:27
Nico Robin: how is he able to generate so much break with below average spin?

7:28
Josh Herzenberg: Usually spin axis/release point. His movement profile is more of a traditional “slurve” than true curveball

7:29
Josh Herzenberg: his four seamer has 26% better than average tail, so they juxtapose each other well. Probably a lot of fun for a coach like Wes Johnson to design that type of arsenal

7:31
Josh Herzenberg: Berrios has thrown almost 7% more changeups in 2019 than 2018 and the xwOBA against it is down over 40 points

7:34
Meg Rowley: Looked out to me.

7:34
Guest: Out!!!!

7:34
Meg Rowley: My eyes are so good, folks.

7:36
Nico Robin: I recently read Ben Lindbergh’s book about development and a lot of it seemed to be “throw your bad pitch less and your good pitch more”, oversimplified as that may be

7:36
Josh Herzenberg: (assuming you’re talking about MVP Machine by Ben and Travis Sawchik) That is simplified but not wrong, yeah

7:37
Meg Rowley: Costas mentioned Garver’s framing earlier — he’s right that it has improved though I don’t know I’d call it good — we had him worth -9.2 framing runs last year (BP had him at -8.2), and he’s improved to +0.8 runs (BP’s model liked him better at +4.2). So not a huge asset but hardly a liability anymore either.

7:39
J: “Slurve” is usually a pejorative term for a breaking ball, but with how quickly pitching dev is evolving do you think we’ll see more good slurvy pitches in the near future?

7:39
Josh Herzenberg: I think the pejorative notion is in a scouting sense, where a lot of amateur players throw “tweener” breaking balls because they lack feel to shape pitches properly. Depending on how things tunnel in the arsenal, a pitch that moves like a “slurve” can be very effective

7:41
Didi Gregorius: do you think the Yankees resign me for next year?  if not, what might they do instead?

7:42
Josh Herzenberg: tough market to gauge at this point. Torres at SS, LeMahieau at 2B isn’t the worst MIF combo in the game, to say the least. But, I have no idea what teams might think of Didi’s market this offseason

7:42
Infield oops rule: oopsies

7:42
Dystopian Future: Oh no DJ

7:42
Meg Rowley: I wish more than anything it was called the infield oops rule

7:45
Nick: It feels like defense has been not been good so far this postseason.

7:45
Meg Rowley: couple notable flubs to be sure, though some very nifty plays as well — we tend to remember the flubs more clearly imo

7:46
Dad Joke #127: It was on that “Twin” killing

7:46
Josh Herzenberg: Not bad

7:46
Meg Rowley: (I’m not talking to myself in the chat, I swear)

7:47
Hugh: okay I take back my comment about smoltz (or owe him an apology) he feels really well prepared for this game with a mix of data and old school scouting.

7:47
Meg Rowley: tbc my issue with his approach doesn’t stem from a perceived lack of preparedness — he can just be a grump about the current state of the game.

7:47
Meg Rowley: Which isn’t to say there aren’t things to critique or improve.

7:48
Meg Rowley: But the postseason is our biggest look-in audience of the year. It’s when casual fans see players they don’t know well. And there’s so much good stuff!

7:48
Meg Rowley: Just seems shortsighted and also, brings down a great exciting time.

7:51
Anon: Does MLB have any say in announcers or is it entirely up to the network?

7:51
Meg Rowley: You’d think they’d have the most influence over an MLB Network game?

7:51
Meg Rowley: (I’m not sure)

7:51
Long winded comment: Smoltz is entitled to his opinion about the state of today’s game.  Getting older myself, there are a lot of things about this world that I am sour on.  That said, your broadcast should focus on selling today’s game or at least focus on the positives.

7:52
Meg Rowley: Yes, for sure. I don’t love the aesthetic direction of some parts of the game. I’m sympathetic, and it’s a worthy discussion.

7:52
Meg Rowley: But maybe for June or November.

7:53
stever20: do you think the concept of bullpenning has kind of peaked and we’re heading back to at least more a balance of starting/relieving?

7:53
Josh Herzenberg: I don’t, unless there are rule changes. As long as it keeps working, teams will keep doing it

7:55
Matt: If nothing else, Yanks seeing lots of pitches.

7:55
Meg Rowley: With the reliever rule changes it might at least put a stopper in and I think shift things back some, but I’d expect that means we see more relievers who have a deeper repertoire of pitches, rather than a dramatic shift back to starters going seven.

7:55
Hey yo: depends on how good starters are

7:56
Meg Rowley: That’s the other part — the really good dudes you still want innings from, even if you’re concerned about injuries, times through the order, etc

7:56
jonnyzuck: watching a game without a strike zone box is weird now

7:56
Meg Rowley: It’s so nice.

7:57
stever20: I also think the 15 day IL thing next year for pitchers will change things somewhat as well.  Make it tougher to have the train from AAA to MLB.

7:57
Meg Rowley: Yup yup

7:57
Josh Herzenberg: Does that rule also apply to MiLB ILs?

7:58
Josh Herzenberg: I don’t know but, if not, it could be incentive for clubs to manipulate option-able players

7:58
Dystopian Future: Obviously these two might fall back into old habits, but right now the broadcast is actually really enjoyable. When he’s providing analysis Smoltz is pretty engaging, and they both seem to really know their stuff for today. And unless I missed something, no complaining about the game (yet).

7:58
J: And it’s interesting that during the draft a lot of complaints are that the announcers are too hyperbolic (ie comparing 2nd rd picks to HOFers) but then they don’t seem to like the current game. It’s kind of an odd dynamic

7:59
Hey yo: nice dig by Cron

7:59
Meg Rowley: He’s been fine so far, and obviously, someone who only talks about how AMAZING EVERY SINGLE THING IS can get tiresome, too. It’s a really hard job!

8:00
stever20: hadn’t heard….  one other thing with next year.  We have 26 from start of season thru August.  28 in September.  For October- is it going to be back to 26, or will it revert back to 25?  I asked Dan and all of them earlier and they didn’t know…..

8:00
Meg Rowley: My understanding is it applies to postseason games as well

8:01
Meg Rowley: Wouldn’t make sense to make you carry fewer dudes in October.

8:01
Mad Joe-Don: Funny. I like the strike zone box, but I didn’t note its absence.

8:02
Meg Rowley: My annoyance with it is mostly due to the reaction on twitter, as it isn’t always right. But I’ve been talking with you fine people instead of looking at twitter.

8:04
Meg Rowley: Seems like it would be rad to be 20,000 feet tall?

8:05
Meg Rowley:

Ok, now how many HR

1 (0% | 0 votes)
 
2 (2.7% | 1 vote)
 
3 (5.5% | 2 votes)
 
4 (22.2% | 8 votes)
 
5 (27.7% | 10 votes)
 
5< (41.6% | 15 votes)
 

Total Votes: 36
8:06
Adam2: Reporting live from Yankee Stadium: fans nonplussed that excitement after catch immediately countered by Cruz. You heard it here first.

8:07
Meg Rowley: Be in the moment, Adam2. We’ll be here to chat another day.

8:07
Cove Dweller: How bad of an idea would it be to expand rosters increasingly throughout the playoffs (e.g., 26 in WC to 40 in WS)?

8:08
Meg Rowley: Think bigger — expand rosters and let teams draft from teams eliminated from contention.

8:08
kevinthecomic: Just wanted to say how great the ‘How they were acquired’ has been!

8:08
Meg Rowley: Yeah, Jason has done a great job. His attention to detail is inspiring.

8:09
Nico Robin: Nelson Cruz still having it makes me feel good

8:09
Meg Rowley: In case you missed them, for this game: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/how-they-were-acquired-the-new-york-yankee…

8:09
Josh Herzenberg: I’m not sure I’ve ever had as much confidence in anything I’ve done as he did on his bat flip right there

8:09
Josh Herzenberg: Cruz, that is

8:09
Josh Herzenberg: Like, that ball was about 320 feet. And he knew it

8:09
Meg Rowley: I’d be so afraid.

8:10
Meg Rowley: I think that’s why I’d favor the bat drop a la Canó.

8:10
Meg Rowley: Easier to recover from if you’re wrong.

8:10
Josh Herzenberg: Can’t disagree

8:11
Dystopian Future: Well, it’s probably a single for Nelson Cruz either way, and I doubt he gets lambasted by the media for a bat-flip there. And bat-flips are fun! Players should bat-flip more.

8:11
Josh Herzenberg: DJ LeBABIPieu

8:11
Josh Herzenberg: (sorry)

8:11
Meg Rowley: Oh bat flips are great. This is a comment on my own anxiety and cowardice.

8:11
Nico Robin: I think Nelson Cruz has earned batflip privileges by now

8:11
Josh Herzenberg: Bat flips are great! Players having fun is great! Everyone should have fun

8:11
Josh Herzenberg: Baseball is fun

8:12
Meg Rowley: We are pro-fun.

8:12
Meg Rowley: We are just scaredy cats.

8:12
jonnyzuck: these popups falling in make it look like my softball leagues

8:12
Meg Rowley: must be a hell of a league

8:12
Cubbie23: If there was any playoff baseball series where the runs will be solely scored via HR, it is going to be this one.

8:14
Meg Rowley: The Twins were third by Guillen Number (the percentages of runs scored on homers); the Yankees were fourth.

8:14
Meg Rowley: And like, barely fourth.

8:14
Meg Rowley: (Toronto was first, Milwaukee was second: https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=1819118)

8:16
Meg Rowley: Yeesh.

This is literally the first time the Yankees have used these 9 players in the same lineup.

This is when it all counts. This is when it matters. #NextManUp
4 Oct 2019
8:17
Josh Herzenberg: If anyone is interested, there’s a documentary about Sanó’s signing called “Ballplayer: Pelotero.” It’s pretty good

8:18
kevinthecomic: Twins exercise Nellie’s $12-million option for next year?  Should they?

8:18
Meg Rowley: Yes. Yes.

8:18
Josh Herzenberg: They definitely should

8:20
jake: in a just world, they’d decline cruz’s option and give that man a raise!

8:20
Josh Herzenberg: It didn’t really matter, but Gonzalez played that bounce off the wall really well

8:23
Jacob: Bat slams are the new bat flips?

8:24
Meg Rowley: the sport should feature a beautiful range of expression

8:24
Meg Rowley: Ruh roh.

8:24
Josh Herzenberg: wow

8:26
J: Cron should’ve made that catch IMO

8:26
Meg Rowley: Think he’d likely agree.

8:28
Raysallday: Does it feely poopier to be a hitter down 0-2 or a pitcher down 3-0?

8:29
Josh Herzenberg: Since we’re noted scaredy cats here, I’d say I’d rather be down 3-0 than down 0-2. I didn’t hit past high school but I pitched through college, and I always felt like I was on the defensive behind in the count as a hitter, but if I went 3-0 on a batter, it was my fault and that’s fixable

8:29
Josh Herzenberg: But, more importantly, the scaredy cat thing. Obviously

8:33
Josh Herzenberg: I know Kepler’s story is well-known for the FanGraphs crowd, but I think Costas did a nice job consolidating it there for the fans listening

8:34
Meg Rowley: I agree

8:34
Meg Rowley: and that’s the sort of detail that

8:34
Meg Rowley: is great to share in postseason imo

8:34
Josh Herzenberg: 100%

8:37
Catch as catch can: Are bloop hits between 2b and rf that go off the second baseman’s glove the real key to the postseason?

8:38
Muxosk : In the sense that it’s a lot about being lucky in the right moments they are.

8:38
Meg Rowley: Or unlucky, as the case may be

8:39
Berry Os: Is this my last inning?

8:41
Josh Herzenberg: I’ll say no

8:41
Meg Rowley: if he goes quickly here, no — much of that last inning wasn’t his fault

8:41
Meg Rowley: I think if I were a major league catcher, well, I’d do a lot of things badly, but I think the most revealing would be how often I’d toss aside my mask assuming I had a play on the ball in foul territory that was in the stands

8:42
Josh Herzenberg: those masks probably aren’t the most comfortable. Nice way to get a breather

8:44
Meg Rowley: nifty

8:44
Anonymoose: Meg, hockey style mask or classic?

8:45
Meg Rowley: Hockey — supposed to be better for your noggin, and I like my brain workin’.

8:45
Josh Herzenberg: Brains are cool

8:45
Josh Herzenberg: FanGraphs: pro-brains

8:46
stever20: what do you guys think of the Nats move to have Strasburg start tonight in game 2 on 2 days rest(with 34 pitches on Tuesday)?

8:47
Josh Herzenberg: Kind of a necessity. He hasn’t relieved since he was a freshman in college, if I remember correctly, and didn’t seem to have any trouble adjusting to it again this week. Perhaps he can make this adjustment, too. It’s not ideal, but necessary

8:48
Juan Soto: Totally unrelated: who has a better fantasy outlook for next year, me or Rendon?

8:49
Josh Herzenberg: There are few things in baseball I know less about than fantasy. So, *shrug emoji* is my answer. Sorry

8:51
Meg Rowley: “gutting it up” sounds messy

8:51
Levi: Is Stanton usually this….slow?

8:53
Meg Rowley: still not totally healthy

8:54
Paul: Players look slower with baggy pants. This is a fact

8:54
Meg Rowley: are those pants considered baggy?

8:54
Josh Herzenberg: Last year he was an above average runner per statcast

8:55
Josh Herzenberg: 73rd percentile 90 feet run time

8:55
Paul: ^^^^ when he wore his socks high

8:56
Meg Rowley: Sure, but still, quite trim.

8:56
Jake: Meg how do you get all the info about the job postings you put up every day?

8:56
Meg Rowley: Teams reach out to me to get stuff posted.

8:57
Jake: That’s so cool

8:57
Meg Rowley: They’ve gotten some great candidates through our readership, which is pretty rad.

8:59
Jay Jaffe: Hey folks, I’m back, almost. Just catching up on this game via Tivo after an adventurous hour of trying to convince my 3-year-old daughter to go to bed.

8:59
Josh Herzenberg: Hello there, Jay

9:00
Meg Rowley: Hi Jay — once Jay tags in, I’m going to tag out to go edit our Braves/Cardinals game piece.

9:02
Dystopian Future: For some number references, Stanton’s 10ft running splits are 84th percentile, even though his 90ft splits are 73rd percentile, indicating some of of his “speed” comes from acceleration. He’s been negative on both his burst and reaction in the field.

9:02
Jay Jaffe: and I’m up to live action just as Giancarlo Stanton makes a hash of things for the second time in left field. Woof

9:02
Meg Rowley: Ok pals, enjoy the rest of the chat — might duck back in post editing.

9:02
Mad Joe-Don: Jay, does the li’l tyke still call home runs ‘baseball runaways’?

9:02
Josh Herzenberg: Thanks Meg

9:03
Jay Jaffe: She does, and it’s adorable. Which I try to remember in her less adorable times

9:03
Jay Jaffe: Bye, Meg!

9:03
Josh Herzenberg: re: Stanton’s run times – would be interesting to see if there’s a correlation with body type and speed tendencies

9:04
Josh Herzenberg: (backpocket idea for a piece, perhaps)

9:05
Josh Herzenberg: Ottavino’s SL horizontal movement is 116% better than league average

9:05
Josh Herzenberg: Lots of spin, lots of movement, lots of weak contact

9:05
Nico Robin: wow

9:06
Paul: Arraez’s -8 DRS in 390 innings doesn’t look like an aberration

9:07
Jay Jaffe: he’s had a rough time out there from what I’ve seen. Gotta assume he’s not 100% right now too. Rusty, at the very least. Hey, we saw Kolten Wong, statistically the best this year at 2B, have trouble yesterday as well

9:08
Don : Think the Yankees bring back Gardner next year?

9:09
Jay Jaffe: I suspect this is their last time around but I guess it depends on whether Hicks needs surgery. The roster really doesn’t have a center fielder besides Hicks and Gardner, unless they can find all of Jacoby Ellsbury’s body parts

9:10
Josh Herzenberg: Kahnle has more than doubled his changeup usage since 2017 and the average launch angle against it this year is negative. xwOBA of .192. Also in the 92nd percentile in fastball velocity league-wide. Should see a lot of high four seamers, low changeups here

9:11
Josh Herzenberg: Or just, ya know, one pitch…

9:11
Sugardragon : How bad would the Yankees have to loose for Aaron Boone to lose his job

9:12
Josh Herzenberg: Ottavino is from Brooklyn (as is Betances) and Kahnle is from the Albany, NY area. NYY hasn’t had to stray too far from home for this bullpen!

9:12
Jay Jaffe: if they were eliminated in two games, he might be fired. Other than that, he’s staying.

9:14
Jay Jaffe: the job that Boone did this year, amid all of the injuries, keeping this team in the hunt for the best record, has bought him a fair bit of leeway

9:15
Jay Jaffe: Judge almost sentenced that ball to die. Nearly hit the LF pole

9:16
Raysallday: Boone manager of the year?

9:16
Jay Jaffe: I’d say it’s either Boone or Baldelli

9:18
Boomstick: Nelson Cruz’s contract option is any easy pickup for next year, right? Even with some decline he’s still crushing

9:18
Josh Herzenberg: Yes

9:18
Jay Jaffe: It’s very tough to get the “exceeds expectations” credit needed for MoY when you’ve got a $200M payroll but given the injuries, this is a case where it’d be merited. Then again, the Twins not just winning but running away with the AL Central as a powerhouse was well beyond expectations

9:19
Jay Jaffe: oh, heavens yes on Cruz. $12 million option? No-brainer

9:19
Amoanipupas: Isn’t Tauchman able to play CF?

9:21
Jay Jaffe: He had positive metrics… in 99 innings. I don’t know that he’s gonna be able to pull that off full-time, though Statcast does like him in terms of jumps, sprint speed, and outs above average

9:21
Jay Jaffe: *I* certainly didn’t see enough of him out there, but like i said, it was only 99 innings

9:21
Josh Herzenberg: Duffey’s xwOBA-against is in the 94th percentile and his slider has 33% above average sink

9:21
Don : Kevin Cash a strong candidate too

9:22
Jay Jaffe: yes indeed.

9:22
Dystopian Future: A little fun fact, Tyler Duffey went 26 appearances without giving up a run the end of July to the end of September, that’s the longest in the bigs in this season (Pressly’s was over two seasons). And the peripherals back it up too, he’s doubled his strikeout rate. Him and Taylor Rogers can match up with anyone in baseball.

9:23
Jay Jaffe: As I said in my preview, the numbers on these two teams’ top five relievers are very, very close. Anybody sleeping on this Twins bullpen does so at their peril. Not the hardest-throwing bunch but no slouches

9:23
Josh Herzenberg: Wes Johnson magic!

9:23
Zack: Tauchman is out w/injury, no?

9:23
Jay Jaffe: yes, this concerns the Gardner return question.

9:24
J: Jay can u answer fantasy questions by chance haha

9:25
Jay Jaffe: chance is the only way I’m going to get one right. I haven’t played fantasy in 9 years, haven’t written for a fantasy pub in 6-7.

9:25
Geoff Williams: I started cooking burritos at the beginning of the fifth innings. They are cooked, eaten and the innings isn’t remotely over yet

9:25
Josh Herzenberg: how were they?

9:26
Jacob: I would like Stanton to invent a new thing to do with the bat after each walk. Slam, flip, toss, shoot out of t shirt cannon. Anything to keep it interesting.

9:26
Josh Herzenberg: I support all of this

9:27
Belli Flop: Will we be doing a Nats-Dodgers chat?

9:28
Josh Herzenberg: I don’t believe so officially but I’m willing to stick around if you guys want to, for at least a little while. At this rate, the games might end at the same time, too

9:28
Fangraph’s Lurker: I want to know about Geoff’s burritos

9:28
Geoff Williams: The burritos were as good as Stanton’s night

9:29
kevinthecomic: bases loaded, full count, here we go

9:29
Jay Jaffe: Man, if you can’t make a competent burrito, that’s on you

9:30
Zack: Giancarlo’s last 2 ABs have been good, but he’s been bad in the field, so the burritos were…ok?

9:30
Geoff Williams: Exactly

9:31
Jay Jaffe: Torres with the scorcher off Sano’s glove, 2-run double, and the Yankees have their biggest lead.

9:36
Jay Jaffe: First pitch coming in LA soon and we’re STILL only in the 5th inning in New York. We have Too Much Baseball Going On, and I’m going to have to move off the couch and to my office to get two screens going.

9:36
Jacob: Is it safe to say the Braves Shane Greene trade was a fail?

9:36
Jay Jaffe: so far the results haven’t been great but the Braves have another year of club control so yes, too early

9:38
Dodgers Nationals: Is this one continuous chat until all of the games are over?

9:38
Josh Herzenberg: Folks — Jay is going to focus mostly on this Yankees-Twins game and I’m going to shift mostly to Dodgers-Nationals

9:38
Belli Flop: Thanks Josh!

9:38
lee: we all fall asleep on the couch until Meg comes back to wake us up and send us to bed

9:38
Josh Herzenberg: This is true

9:40
Muxosk : Bunting

9:40
Josh Herzenberg: Probably not the most ideal first inning strategy

9:40
Belli Flop: Lol bunt popouts are fun.  I am biased though.

9:40
Josh Herzenberg: Nats fan?

9:41
Jay Jaffe: wow, homer by Sano that just made it into the first row. Twins have a 3-0 homer advantage but are still down 5-4

9:44
Josh Herzenberg: Kershaw walks Rendon, 2 on and 1 out in the 1st in LA. Soto up

9:47
Belli Flop: Bases loaded against Kershaw

9:48
Josh Herzenberg: Will Smith does a very nice job framing on the corners, for anyone interested in that sort of thing

9:50
Randy Marsh: Smith started a bit shaky early on in terms of framing, but this series so far he’s been masterful at it

9:50
Josh Herzenberg: yeah, his minor league metrics were always strong

9:50
Jay Jaffe: Sorry, toddler detour. I’m back. I think she’s reached her mound visits count

9:51
Josh Herzenberg: She is all of us

9:52
Go Barves!: How do they not check on that check swing??

9:53
Roman Numeral Three: Is there a consensus on Sanchez’s defensive ability? Or is it too volatile over the last few years to have a legitimate opinion?

9:54
Jay Jaffe: I have to wonder how much the groin/lower body injuries have had an impact on his framing. When squatting is no fun I have to think everything is that much harder. I also think there’s been so much complaining about his blocking that focusing on that may have compromised his framing.

9:58
Josh Herzenberg: Strasburg’s curveball — which is excellent — is his most-used pitch. Everything in his arsenal has above average horizontal movement. The xwOBA against his changeup this year was .189 and the average launch angle was 0

10:00
Jay Jaffe: and now it’s DJ LeMahieu with a big solo homer. 105.7 off the bat, 426 feet on a fastball down the middle. he didn’t miss it, folks

10:01
Go Barves!: Dodger fans, how does Turner get pine tar on that particular part of his back?

10:01
Josh Herzenberg: Lots of pine tar, lots of practice swings

10:03
Rick: So what does Austin Barnes’s future in LA look like?

10:03
Josh Herzenberg: He’s still a plus defender who is under team control. I would imagine the answer has a lot to do with the answer to what Keibert Ruiz’s future looks like

10:04
Jay Jaffe: you guys it’s a home run

10:05
Howard: That’s 5 with many hours of baseball left

10:05
Jay Jaffe: Gardner, 103 off the bat, 375 to right field. Five solo homers tonight. This is what’s made me weary of the flood of ’em, when it’s just solo after solo after solo. Well-hit balls, but you don’t get as much drama as the big 3-run homer that breaks the dam open in a pressure-packed situation.

10:10
Nico: Does Kershaw look physically well?  Command has been especially poor tonight.

10:10
Josh Herzenberg: I certainly don’t want to speculate from a TV feed, but he hasn’t been great thus far

10:12
Josh Herzenberg: Adam Eaton with an RBI single, 2-0 Washington in the top of the 2nd in LA

10:13
Josh Herzenberg: Rendon with a double off the wall to score Eaton

10:13
Josh Herzenberg: Not a good start for Kershaw

10:14
Dystopian Future: I thought that ball was well gone off of Rendon’s bat, kind of surprised that stayed in the park.

10:15
Josh Herzenberg: The broadcast keeps dwelling on Kershaw’s curveball — to be clear, it has been his third-most used pitch for a decade. He throws a fastball or slider almost 83% of the time. He isn’t locating, but the mix isn’t abnormal

10:15
Belli Flop: @Dystopian Future same here

10:18
Guest: So who pitches the 8th for the yankees ???

10:18
Mick: Does Soto usually struggle as much against lefty sliders as his last three at-bats would suggest?

10:18
Josh Herzenberg: Quick glance at Statcast says no

10:18
Josh Herzenberg: Emphasis on quick glance

10:18
Jay Jaffe: that’s a good question, as they’ve burned through Ottavino, Kahnle, Green and now Britton, leaving them Chapman from among their top 5.

10:19
Jay Jaffe: wow, that is a big catch from Judge.

10:19
Jay Jaffe: that 19 DRS from him in 2/3 of a season is looking about right

10:20
Jack: I’m thinking Severino in the 8th for his throw day. Let’s get a little nuts.

10:21
Yolo: Is there an LA-WAS chat or should we all just ramble here?

10:21
Josh Herzenberg: For now, I’m on LAD-WAS and Jay is on NYY-MIN

10:22
Belli Flop: Wow Stephen Strasburg looks good

10:22
Jay Jaffe: we’re all just rambling. I’m past my pitch count

10:22
Nicholas: So who cleans up the mess for Kershaw?  Is Maeda still at all stretched out from starting earlier this year?

10:22
Josh Herzenberg: Urias? May?

10:22
Belli Flop: Stripling

10:23
Guest: Are framing runs offset in the offensive or pitching stats? If a catcher frames a strike out, if he’s credited for it, then the pitcher should see the value of the strike out decrease as they didn’t “earn” it.

10:23
Jay Jaffe: Framing runs come out of the pitching WAR. Noticed when I was writing about the Yankees’ bullpen, which set WAR records in each of the two previous years, that they had decreased because of our framing stats as well as slight tweaks to the 5-year park factors

10:23
jonnyzuck: I think Boone will start with britton and relieve him with chapman as needed unless they get a few runs here and can go to someone like loaisiga or cessa

10:23
Jay Jaffe: Happ is available in theory too

10:24
Jay Jaffe: but then I’d have thought he’d be in for the Rosario-Sano-Kepler sequence, with 2 lefties out of 3.

10:26
Guest: What about green?

10:26
Jay Jaffe: he threw 8 pitches in the 6th, got 2 outs, and departed

10:28
Belli Flop: Doesn’t Happ have fairly neutral platoon splits?

10:28
Jay Jaffe: oh heavens no. .249 wOBA vs LHB over the past 3 seasons, .324 vs RH. This year, .280 and .345

10:33
Belli Flop: I have embarrassed myself in front of Jay Jaffe

10:34
Jay Jaffe: unless you’re managing against Happ, no need to be embarrassed. we don’t all walk around with these numbers in our heads or in binders next to us

10:35
Josh Herzenberg: Plot twist: Belli Flop is Rocco Baldelli

10:37
Jay Jaffe: whoa

10:37
Belli Flop: Yeah I’m on my phone in the dugout.

10:37
Paul: It’s only one game, but Didi Gregorius seems to swing at every pitch, no matter how far out of the strike zone

10:39
Jay Jaffe: Didi’s been a bit of a mess this year. Maybe it’s because he hasn’t been 100%, or maybe he felt the pressure of missing nearly half his walk year due to TJS while watching Torres play the position adequately, but is 41.1% O-Swing is his worst since his rookie year, and his 84 wRC+ his worst since 2014

10:39
Josh Herzenberg: Nice diving catch there from Soto

10:43
JTB: Seems like the Yankees’ strategy is to make sure that all their relieves will be able to pitch in Game 2 , while Minnesota is mostly burning their guys

10:43
Jay Jaffe: well the Twins haven’t used Rogers (and won’t need him if the score stays like this), Romo, or May, and the Yankees have left themselves a bit of a rickety bridge to Chapman here by going short with their guys — Ottavino not retiring a hitter, for example

10:44
Mick: Excellent play there by Kershaw

10:45
Jay Jaffe: And DJ LeMahieu again with the big hit, a bases-loaded double, 10-4

10:46
Jay Jaffe: 3-for-5 with 4 RBI for Deej tonight.

10:47
Jay Jaffe: And with that, I think I can shift over to focusing on Dodgers-Nats.

10:47
Josh Herzenberg: Welcome aboard

10:47
Josh Herzenberg: You’ve missed Strasburg being decent

10:48
Jay Jaffe: Yes but i’ve been spared watching Kershaw, it sounds like

10:49
Josh Herzenberg: They’ve been…not the same

10:49
Go Barves!: Decent?! It’s drool worthy.

10:49
lee: Second time through the order coming up for the Dodgers

10:50
Jay Jaffe: and the answer to the Yankees question is Happ pitching in the 8th

10:55
Josh Herzenberg: Strasburg with 47 pitches and 6 K’s in 4 perfect innings. Tough to be much better than he has been so far

10:56
Josh Herzenberg: He’s facing a really good lineup and they’ve looked utterly overwhelmed

10:57
Jay Jaffe: I haven’t gotten to see much but Statcast tells me that all but one of the balls in play he’s allowed were hard hit (95+)

10:57
Jay Jaffe: granted, most of them on the ground

10:57
Jay Jaffe: but a couple with xBAs in the .500 range

10:58
Josh Herzenberg: ^ noteworthy

10:58
Belli Flop: Jay, that one ball was off the bat of Clayton Kershaw

10:58
Jay Jaffe: yes, I see that

11:00
Josh Herzenberg:

11:00
Randy Marsh: Does Strasburg opt out after this season?

11:01
Jay Jaffe: I think so, yes. His contract is so complicated with the opt outs and deferred $ but the annual salaries are 20:$25M, 21:$15M, 22:$15M, 23:$45M

11:01
Jay Jaffe: i have to think he can easily go get more than $100 million now

11:02
Josh Herzenberg: FWIW, Eaton’s F8 had an xBA of .640. Rendon’s single had an xBA of .070

11:02
Josh Herzenberg: Baseball is weird

11:02
Jay Jaffe: location, location, location

11:02
Josh Herzenberg: lol

11:05
Josh Herzenberg: Bottom 8 in the Bronx. 10-4 Yankees

11:06
Belli Flop: Does Kershaw go another inning after this?

11:06
Josh Herzenberg: I would say most likely, yes

11:07
Josh Herzenberg: Pending what happens in the bottom half of the inning, of course

11:08
Jay Jaffe:

Dave Roberts said after Clayton Kershaw’s rough first two innings he wanted to see more breaking balls. This inning typified those adjustments. Kershaw threw 44 pitches in the first two innings (21 fastballs) and 17 in the 5th (two fastballs).
5 Oct 2019
11:11
Jay Jaffe: Strasburg has gotten 13 outs so far and has 13 swinging strikes, 7 of them on the curve.

11:14
Jay Jaffe: EJ just said “high degree of soft contact tonight” against Strasburg and… I can’t even.

11:15
Josh Herzenberg: Yeah, there are so many accurate ways to say how good he’s been…

11:15
Josh Herzenberg: Chapman in for NYY

11:16
Jay Jaffe: they actually need his inning tonight

11:16
Josh Herzenberg: absolutely

11:17
Jay Jaffe: and there’s the Dodgers’ first it, just as I was pulling up Craig Edwards’ guide

11:17
Josh Herzenberg: KARMA, JAY!

11:17
Josh Herzenberg: 86.4 mph, 20 degree LA

11:20
Randy Marsh: Dustin May warming up

11:23
Jay Jaffe: Your boy, Josh

11:24
Josh Herzenberg: That explains why he didn’t answer my text…

11:24
Jay Jaffe: lol

11:24
Josh Herzenberg: a little busy, I guess

11:24
Josh Herzenberg: It’s over in the Bronx, folks

11:25
Josh Herzenberg: Yankees beat the Twins, 10-4

11:26
Jay Jaffe: Big win for the Yankees. Their bullpen won the battle tonight but i’m struck by the fact that 5 of the 7 runs the Twins’ pen gave up were by guys outside of their top 5. Gibson and Stashak. Gotta get your best guys in there when it’s close

11:27
Josh Herzenberg: Couldn’t agree more

11:27
Josh Herzenberg: Especially with such a strong front line in the pen

11:27
Jay Jaffe: meanwhile, that was a 25-pitch inning for Strasburg but his total pitch count is still just 72

11:29
Jay Jaffe: And with that, the fact that this isn’t going to be a no-hitter in LA, and that I’ll be in the press box at Yankee Stadium tomorrow, I’m going to tap out and crack open an adult beverage

11:30
Josh Herzenberg: Enjoy, Jay!

11:30
Jay Jaffe: Josh is going to stick around, though, so you’re in good hands!

11:30
weezy: what do you think Strasburg’s max pitch count is tonight? Like would they go 120+?

11:31
Josh Herzenberg: I would say they’ll have a fairly liberal pitch count for him, yeah

11:33
J: Per Joel Sherman, Dobnak starts tomorrow for Min, Odorizzi G3

11:34
John: How much more does Cole get that Strasburg on the market? How much does postseason play this year factor into that?

11:34
Josh Herzenberg: Have to imagine quite a bit more. He’s two years younger, has a longer track record of durability, no major injury history, and has been a good bit better

11:35
Josh Herzenberg: I don’t think the postseason would (or should) factor into anything related to free agency for anyone ever

11:37
Josh Herzenberg: FYI to all of you here — there hasn’t been a drop off in readers, so I’ll stick around as long as you guys do to continue chatting. Feel free to keep submitting questions and comments as we roll

11:38
Mick: How much do you think Strasburg improved his future contract outlook by going over 200 innings this year

11:38
Josh Herzenberg: I think it’ll be a big factor w/r/t years, more so than AAV

11:40
Go Barves!: Josh, I don’t think I’ve seen you chat this year on FG. What’s your background, interest, vibe? How can we, the chatters, fit into your particular brand a la Kiley and DanZzzz

11:40
Josh Herzenberg: Haha. I spent three years scouting and coaching in the minor leagues for the Dodgers. We can chat about whatever you guys would like

11:41
5 Run Homer: In other words, what silly tangents will you indulge?

11:41
Josh Herzenberg: I’ll let Kiley handle Matt Damon-esque things

11:42
weezy: did you work with any current dodgers?

11:42
Josh Herzenberg: A little bit, yeah

11:43
Mick: More of a Ben Affleck type guy then?

11:43
Josh Herzenberg: Absolutely

11:44
Sugar dragon : Rank these pitchers over the next 3 years (walker Buehler, jack flaherty, Tyler glassnow

11:44
Josh Herzenberg: That order seems plausible

11:44
lee: Are there particular Nats hitters you think May would be better/worse against (and why)?

11:45
Josh Herzenberg: He’d probably be worse against Rendon and better against Strasburg

11:46
Belli Flop: Pedro Baez in for LAD

11:46
Boch: As a former dodgers guy, how much better run is their operation than the giants was pre-Farhan?

11:46
Josh Herzenberg: I don’t know enough about SFG to say and, truthfully, I wouldn’t do so publicly if I did

11:46
weezy: how does scouting/coaching work? Do you spend most of your time with one team? Or on the road like a typical area scout?

11:47
Josh Herzenberg: I covered North Texas, Oklahoma, and Arkansas and then right after the draft, I left and spent the remainder of the summer through the end of instructional league coaching

11:48
5 Run Homer: I will say, Josh Herzenberg is maybe the most middle reliever-y name I’ve seen on FanGraphs

11:48
Josh Herzenberg: I’ve been told worse, so I’ll take that as a compliment

11:49
Josh Herzenberg: A very LA moment: Delaying a playoff game to retrieve a beach ball on the field

11:52
Josh Herzenberg: Kolarek and May up in the pen. Soto is on deck

11:53
lee: You wrote the called up piece on May, right? That was fun to read–must be amazing to watch him make the postseason roster

11:53
Josh Herzenberg: Yes. Thanks. Shameless plug: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/called-up-dustin-may/

11:55
Josh Herzenberg: I’m happy for him and all the players I scouted/coached that are experiencing the postseason

11:55
Josh Herzenberg: Seeing Lux hit the HR yesterday was super cool

11:56
Dystopian Future: I wonder if the 3-batter limit means that lefty specialists and low-leverage one-inning bullpen guys get replaced by longer, innings-eater types to try and save the high-leverage one-inning relievers.

11:57
Josh Herzenberg: Solid assumption, I would imagine

11:58
weezy: Does Kolarek face anyone not named Juan Soto this series? And does he show up in every game?

11:58
Josh Herzenberg: Probably not? Maybe?

12:02
weezy: so Lux, May… What about Buehler, Beaty, Will Smith? Are all those instructional guys?

12:02
Josh Herzenberg: I never worked directly with Beaty. I was in Ogden in 2016 and Rancho Cucamonga in 2017, and then instructional league in the fall

12:03
Sean: have the nats announced their pitching yet for 3/4?  I assume scherzer for 4.

12:04
Belli Flop: Scherzer has been announced for 3

12:05
Josh Herzenberg: Good AB here from Soto

12:07
Dystopian Future: Well, it’s Dustin May vs Howie Kendrick. Here we go.

12:07
Meg Rowley: May!!! Cool cool.

12:07
Meg Rowley: (ok, going back to editing now)

12:08
Josh Herzenberg: I assume you popped back in because my slack notifications are on mute

12:08
weezy: Now that you are no longer working in MLB/Dodgers, are you able to be a fan? Or does it make it harder (like other writers have talked about)?

12:09
Josh Herzenberg: Yeah, definitely. I grew up a Yankee fan in the NYC area, but now I have a lot of friends in the game. I mostly just hope they all do well

12:11
Josh Herzenberg: I coached both the guys in the battery here and I signed the pitcher

12:11
Josh Herzenberg: To be clear, he was not this good in high school. If he was, we would have drafted him much earlier than the 3rd round

12:15
Josh Herzenberg: This was at his debut in August (a few hours after the call up piece went up)

12:16
weezy: Really cool to have this kind of perspective at fg, Josh. Reading some of your work as I watch – particularly dug the May piece and the Nogowski piece

12:16
Josh Herzenberg: Thanks!

12:16
Josh Herzenberg: Strasburg was fantastic tonight

12:16
Josh Herzenberg: Scherzer warming

12:17
Nats Bullpen Observer: has a team ever used its top two starters as relievers AND starters like this before

12:18
Dystopian Future: I mean the Red Sox did a lot of having starters in relief last year with a shaky bullpen.

12:20
Josh Herzenberg: Muncy. That was a bomb.

12:20
Josh Herzenberg: 103.5 mph, 29 degree LA, 413 feet

12:23
weezy: so thinking about what the Nationals are thinking… 2 innings from Scherzer and get out of LA tied 1-1?

12:23
lee: The Johnson/Schilling Dbacks, as I recall, did a lot of that

12:25
weezy: or was that like Kershaw a few years ago, that the warmup doubles as his “side day”, and he’s likely not pitching the 8th

12:26
Sam: Do you think they’d still go with Scherzer game 3 then if that were the case?

12:28
Josh Herzenberg: Depends on the pitch count. Today is likely a throw day for him, so possibly

12:28
J: I’d guess Scherzer has a pitch limit of ~30 and if they need another arm they go with Hudson?

12:28
Mick: I imagine it doesn’t particularly matter whether Scherzer starts game 3 or game 4 if you win this game, so I guess you might as well use him to even the series up ehre

12:30
Josh: You can use 3-days rest Corbin in game 4, might mean they’d prefer to use Scherzer in game 3

12:32
Josh Herzenberg: Might be time to consider Jansen warming

12:32
Sam: It seems unlikely that kind of system could last too long, right?

12:33
weezy: that was a great at-bat from Suzuki

12:33
Josh Herzenberg: Seems like Robles might have tweaked something there

12:35
lee: …shouldn’t have Suzuki scored there?

12:35
5 Run Homer: The rare RBI TOOTBLAN

12:35
weezy: TOOTBLAN

12:35
Belli Flop: TOOTBLAN

12:36
Randy Marsh: Who gets the last 6 outs for the Nats? Scherzer? Hudson?

12:38
Josh Herzenberg: Scherzer in

12:39
Geebs: Who is Josh Herzenberg?

12:39
Josh Herzenberg: Per some people here, I think I am a Batman-loving middle reliever

12:41
Josh Herzenberg: Can confirm that Lux didn’t see sliders like that in the Pioneer League or the Cal League…

12:41
lee: That was…a swing

12:42
Mick: Hudson up in the pen

12:43
J: If you read The Arm by Jeff Passan, it’s really easy to root for Daniel Hudson

12:44
Josh Herzenberg: Agreed

12:44
Josh Herzenberg: Also not-so-shameless plug…Jeff did a fantastic job on that book and if you haven’t read it, you should

12:45
Josh Herzenberg: That inning was impressive as hell

12:45
weezy: seriously. This Scherzer kid looks good

12:45
Josh Herzenberg: Might have a future

12:45
Guest: Where did the Nats find this random 35 year old reliever? He looks pretty good out there

12:46
Josh Herzenberg: Disney movie coming out soon

12:48
Josh Herzenberg: Urías has given up some of the softest contact in the league this year. Hard Hit % against is 100th percentile, as is EV against. xwOBA, 89th, xSLG, 94th

12:49
Josh Herzenberg: Very high spin fastball

12:51
lee: Think he’ll fare well as a starter next season? I imagine going from ~70 IP to double that (or more) takes its toll

12:52
Josh Herzenberg: Yeah, it’ll all depend on how the shoulder holds up. He was a starter through the minors and maintained his stuff every time I saw him there, so he’s capable of length, it just depends on health

12:52
Josh Herzenberg: The surgery he had was pretty serious

12:52
Josh Herzenberg: I would imagine, should they fully transition him back, they’ll be conservative

12:53
Josh Herzenberg: IP totals would likely mirror Tony Gonsolin’s in the 2018 minor league season, which was his first as a starter

12:57
weezy: what’s your take on Gonsolin? Does he have any more projection given his late start to pitching?

12:58
Josh Herzenberg: #4 starter upside. Good athlete. Very good splitter

12:59
Josh Herzenberg: Hudson coming in for the Nats. Here’s his mix from this year

1:02
Fire Ken Tremendous: Just finished my softball game. Hustled home to catch the end of this last game and this chat!!

1:02
Josh Herzenberg: Lots of weird emotions about this name, FKT

1:04
Mick: What’s the narrative if the Nats blow this one? Should’ve stuck with Scherzer for 2 IP?

1:05
Fire Ken Tremendous: We’re in a Good Place

1:06
Josh Herzenberg: The Best Place seemed intriguing

1:06
Go Barves!: FKT FTW

1:07
J: I’d guess it’d be that they should’ve let Strasburg go longer. He only went 85 pitches (though on 2 days rest, and T7 went long, so IMO it’s defensible)

1:08
Josh Herzenberg: Bold strategy here, Cotton

1:10
Josh Herzenberg: Well, this turned interesting

1:10
lee: Does Seager swing at the first pitch in this situation?

1:11
cavebird: Well, there isn’t anyone else they can put in, at least nobody better.

1:14
Belli Flop: Is Jansen warming?

1:14
Josh Herzenberg: Great pitch

1:15
Josh Herzenberg: 4-2 final

1:15
Belli Flop: Thanks for chatting Josh!

1:15
lee: Thanks Josh!

1:15
lee: and everyone!

1:16
Josh Herzenberg: Well, folks, this has been a lot of fun. I’m beyond 7 hours of chatting so I’m going to bid you all adieu. Thanks for joining for an evening full of great baseball and great fun. Let’s do it again some time!

1:16
Go Barves!: Thanks Josh!

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