• Sabermetrics news: The Reds are firmly in the NL Central mix

    Posted sometime

    Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

    The Modern Committee’s vote; the Reds’ shot at contention; optimism and pessimism at free agency

    FanGraphs | Jay Jaffe: The Hall of Fame’s Modern Committee vote is on the way, meaning we could see some missed opportunity candidates getting a shot at the Hall. The likes of Lou Whitaker, Ted Simmons, and Marvin Miller, hopefully, will get their due, finally.

    Baseball Prospectus | Matthew Trueblood ($): With the Reds signing Mike Moustakas to a long-term deal, it’s safe to say that they’re firmly in the NL Central race for 2020. It could be one of the better rotations, and with the addition of Alan Zinter at hitting coach, it’s possible the team shapes up on the offensive side, as well.

    The Ringer | Ben Lindbergh: There’s reason to be optimistic about free agency; there’s been more business than at this point last year or the year before, but it isn’t going to change anything structurally. Teams are still finding ways to save—the non-tender fiasco this year is a good example—and it doesn’t change the reality that overall expenditures are still slowing in increases while revenue continues to climb.

    Get the top Fantasy Baseball Lineup Builder Here

  • The Rays trade Tommy Pham to Padres for Hunter Renfroe, Xavier Edwards

    Posted sometime

    Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images

    The Rays are it again, folks.

    In some ways, no reaction sums up the Rays’ decision to send Tommy Pham (and one still-unknown prospect) to the Padres for Hunter Renfroe and Xavier Edwards better than this one, unprompted reaction by Blake Snell:

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    To be perfectly fair to Edwards, he isn’t exactly “slapdick.” Edwards is a top prospect in his own right; Baseball America described him as a “quick, twitchy athlete… [with] an advanced eye… he is a base-stealing terror with his plus-plus speed… His fringe-average arm is his one drawback and may eventually force him to second base.”

    That all being said, this is truly a perplexing move on behalf of the Rays. When the Rays do their traditional pump-and-dump of year-two or year-three arbitration players, the returns somewhat make sense given the context. When the Rays flipped David Price and got back Wily Adames, that made more sense; they were still technically rebuilding, and Price’s final-year arbitration costs would be a record-high.

    When the Rays flipped Chris Archer, the thinking was similar to price but more matched with their contention cycle. After winning 90 games in 2018 the acquisition of Austin Meadows and Tyler Glasnow fit quite neatly into the fold; there was obviously the sense that they needed to be improved but there was an immediate impact that helped them get a game away from the ALCS; hell, Glasnow was in that very game.

    In this case it’s a much more lateral, if even backward, move. Pham is projected by MLB Trade Rumors to make $8.6 million, and Renfroe $3.4 million. While Renfroe had power in a pitchers’ ballpark, slugging 33 home runs, he only had an OBP of .289 and looks to be worth about a single win next year, not exactly a “replacement” of Pham who was their most valuable position player from 2018-19 and produced 5.9 fWAR in 184 games.

    There wouldn’t be as much questioning of the move if the Rays were below .500 this year, but this is a team very much vying for a divisional or wild card spot, Yankees and Gerrit Cole notwithstanding.

    Which is why this may end up breaking even for the Rays—maybe they improve Renfroe a la Meadows, and maybe Edwards becomes a stud—but it’s a bad trade for baseball writ large. The Rays are a fun team with a great core of new players, and they essentially stole from Peter to pay Paul, losing possibly three wins in the immediate sense to get maybe three wins from 2022 to 2027. If a team can’t afford arbitration for a nearly-four-win player, then it’s fair to ask which scenario they would be willing to spend money other than an Evan Longoria slam-dunk extension.

    Until there is a new (privately-funded) stadium, or a better TV deal, or a better ownership group, there’s really no use wasting more breath on moves like these, I suppose. The Rays have chosen to relegate themselves to an abbreviated two-to-four year cycle for any player, almost no matter how good, and no matter how good they are currently: once your arbitration prices hit this point on the graph, then we will trade it for future dollars. There are plenty of businesses that run that way perfectly well, but baseball shouldn’t be one of them.

    Get the best Fantasy Baseball Lineup Builder Here

  • Small Sample, Big Outlook: Nico Hoerner

    Posted sometime

    Just over a year and 89 minor league games after he was drafted, Nico Hoerner made his debut with the Chicago Cubs, going 3/5 with 4 RBI in his debut, as the Cubs starting SS on September 7th. While the rest of his first month in the majors wasn’t quite as spectacular, Hoerner’s debut was a bit of a bright spot in an otherwise disappointing season for the Cubs. His .282/.305/.436 grades out as below average overall, but it displayed his plus hit tool, as well as surprising power. Hoerner has been somewhat of a hot commodity this offseason, so my goal here is to help you realistically guide your expectations for Nico Hoerner, both for 2020 and moving forward.

    When Hoerner was drafted, he was seen as a safe, but unexciting pick, yet here he is getting people excited about his fantasy potential. Hoerner’s hit tool has always been his best tool, as he was a .300 hitter through both his last two years of college, and the two summers he spent in wood bat collegiate summer leagues. While he’s shown to be a competent fielder, and can run pretty well, Hoerner didn’t seem to have anything outside of his hit tool that could help him contribute in fantasy, yet here we are. Nico Hoerner’s AA stats seem pretty in line with how he fared in his major league debut. He walked a bit more, and didn’t show as much power, but the overall slash line was very similar.

    Get the Fantasy Baseball Lineup Builder Here

  • Effectively Wild Episode 1466: Slapdick Podcast

    Posted sometime

    Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about covering transactions past and present, the latest eye-catching comments by Scott Boras, the Tommy Pham trade and Blake Snell’s candid real-time reaction to it, and what the busy signing season so far augurs for the future of free agency and labor relations, then answer listener emails about players with more times caught stealing than strikeouts and team TV networks airing classic losses, with additional discussion of the weird and wonderful Nick Madrigal, the forecast for a fun White Sox team in 2020, an increasingly intriguing crop of two-way players, and the evolving look of baseball broadcasts.

    Audio intro: The Move, "Cherry Blossom Clinic Revisited"
    Audio outro: XTC, "Harvest Festival"

    Link to Boras story
    Link to Boras Corporation website
    Link to Snell story
    Link to Ben Clemens on the Pham trade
    Link to Ben on free agency
    Link to Jen Ramos fundraiser
    Link to order The MVP Machine

     iTunes Feed (Please rate and review us!)
     Sponsor Us on Patreon
     Facebook Group
     Effectively Wild Wiki
     Twitter Account
     Get Our Merch!
     Email Us: podcast@fangraphs.com

    var SERVER_DATA = Object.assign(SERVER_DATA || );

    Get the Fantasy Baseball Lineup Builder by clicking here

  • 2020 ZiPS Projections: Colorado Rockies

    Posted 3 hours ago

    After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for eight years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Colorado Rockies.

    .intro-team-prospects-toggle
    text-align: center;
    margin-top: 10px;
    font-size: 12px;

    #blogcontent .fullpostentry [class^=”team-box”]
    margin: auto;
    padding: 0;

    .team-box-button
    background-color: #F5F5F5;
    line-height: 1;
    cursor: pointer;
    text-align: center;
    display: inline-block;
    text-decoration: none;
    padding: 5px;
    border: 1px solid #eee;

    .team-box-button.team-highlight
    background-color: #50ae26;
    color: white;

    @media(max-width: 600px)
    #blogcontent .box-team div
    padding: 0;
    text-align: center;

    .intro-team, .intro-team td
    font-family: lato, Arial, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;
    font-size: 13px;
    margin-bottom: 20px;

    .intro-team .intro-header
    /*display: none;*/
    text-align: center;

    .team-lg
    text-align: center;
    width: 100%;

    [class^=”team-box-“] > div
    display: inline-block;
    width: 48%;

    [class^=”team-box-“] > div table
    width: 100%;
    border-collapse: collapse;

    [class^=”team-box-“] > div td
    background-color: #efefef;
    border: 1px solid #ccc;
    line-height: 2;
    text-align: center;
    cursor: default;

    [class^=”team-box-“] > div a
    color: #000;
    text-decoration: none;
    display: block;
    width: 100%

    [class^=”team-box-“] > div a:hover
    color: #50ae26;

    [class^=”team-box-“] > div a.link-inactive
    color: #aaa;

    Batters

    The 2019 Colorado Rockies ranked fourth in the National League in runs scored, which is actually a rather bleak ranking for a team that plays at Coors Field. “OMGTEHCOORSHANGOVER” has become a convenient excuse for the club’s struggles — at least when they accidentally suggest they’re aware there are struggles — but it’s become a bit of a crutch when talking about the team. There appears to be an effect, but a minor one, unlikely to be worth more than three-to-five points of OPS for Rockies hitters. ZiPS doesn’t take into consideration any “Coors hangover,” and if this were a big deal, then ZiPS would be systematically too optimistic on players going to Coors and too pessimistic on players leaving. But it is not.

    I feel like we’ve been over this story a billion times, but very little has changed in Colorado. The team’s offense is largely reliant on having two-to-three players in any given season being MVP candidates, with Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story likely being those two players again in 2020. Ryan McMahon and David Dahl both receive projections that are kinda disappointing, but it’s hard to forget that Dahl’s injury history is long and the Rockies spent two prime development years jerking McMahon around.

    The team has done a lousy job developing secondary offensive talent, and they showed little interest in a meaningless stretch drive to look at some of these fringe players, like Dom Nunez or Roberto Ramos or Peter Mooney, by giving them playing time in the majors. There was no guarantee Mike Tauchman would even be good for the Yankees in 2019, but there was certainly more of a chance he’d contribute to the Rockies than Ian Desmond. The Nationals really ought to have voted Desmond a playoff share; him turning down a seven-year, $105 million contract offer from the Washington was a big boost to that team’s successful run.

    Pitchers

    ZiPS has long been a big fan of German Marquez, and a relatively meh 2019 hasn’t really changed its silicon-based feelings. Sure, a 4.76 ERA doesn’t pop out at you as a good thing, but some of this has to do with the level of offense jumping considerably in baseball thanks to home runs by the bucket. You expect a pitcher to fail to match their FIP in Coors; it’s actually more of a BABIP park than a home run park. ZiPS expects Marquez’s FIP vs. ERA margin to shrink and for him to have a general return to form, if not quite as shiny a projection as his 2018 line. Similarly, ZiPS projects Jon Gray to be an excellent No. 2 starter. The problem with their rotation is what comes behind them. Kyle Freeland can hardly be counted on given his 2019 season, and the depth behind him has become relatively thin. It’s a team that ought to be playing in free agency.

    However, it appears unlikely that the Rockies are going to open up their wallets this winter to fix the offense or the back of the rotation. Again, they’ve publicly identified the bullpen as their biggest problem, and while it stunk in 2019, I’d argue the problem is the pitchers the Rockies decide they want in their bullpen. Whereas most successful teams have a few relievers they identified off the scrap heap, the Rockies paid retail for established relievers, which is dangerous given the attrition rate of non-elite relievers. ZiPS is naturally suspicious of minor league pitchers, but it sees two the team let leave as minor league free agents, Matt Pierpont and Alexander Guillen, as being as interesting as any of the team’s cadre of overpaid relievers. Just like with the fringe players on the offense, the Rockies couldn’t have been less interested in using September to look at some of these guys at the major league level.

    Prospects

    One of the things that has allowed the Rockies to moderately thrive despite mismanagement at the major league level is the fact that the team’s farm system was extremely productive during the mid-2010s. Sure, they avoided trading practically every veteran at the peak of their value and have spent more than $250 million in the last five years in free agency for WAR that is below zero, but when you develop/acquire Arenado, Story, Blackmon, Dahl, Marquez, Gray, etc. and don’t have to pay them anything, that makes up for a lot of sins. But that group is getting more expensive and the farm system isn’t producing as it once did. In terms of future value, at the end of the 2018 season, Colorado’s farm ranked 28th on THE BOARD.

    The team still has Brendan Rodgers, and hopefully they’ll either clear a spot for him or trade him for someone they will use and not take their typical middle ground of shuffling their prospects up and down to the minors so as not to interfere with the playing time of their veterans.

    One pedantic note for 2020: for the WAR graphic, I’m using FanGraphs’ depth charts playing time, not the playing time ZiPS spits out, so there will be occasional differences in WAR totals.

    Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

    Batters – Standard
    Player B Age PO G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
    Nolan Arenado R 29 3B 151 573 98 171 35 4 37 117 63 101 3 2
    Trevor Story R 27 SS 151 580 97 159 36 5 36 99 54 179 20 7
    Charlie Blackmon L 33 RF 141 578 106 172 33 7 27 76 44 113 6 6
    Brendan Rodgers R 23 2B 95 349 48 96 19 2 13 48 23 80 4 2
    Ryan McMahon L 25 2B 144 477 65 124 26 3 20 75 48 153 7 2
    Colton Welker R 22 3B 115 439 51 122 24 1 16 62 31 102 3 1
    David Dahl L 26 LF 107 390 63 109 24 4 19 64 31 115 6 4
    Daniel Murphy L 35 1B 121 433 60 128 31 2 15 74 32 65 2 1
    Garrett Hampson R 25 2B 129 466 61 124 20 7 9 45 38 109 28 7
    Yonathan Daza R 26 CF 126 493 59 146 27 4 6 46 25 85 11 8
    Yonder Alonso L 33 1B 123 373 53 100 19 0 19 68 47 86 1 1
    Josh Fuentes R 27 3B 128 482 61 124 26 5 15 61 21 132 3 3
    Raimel Tapia L 26 LF 138 467 64 135 28 7 10 51 25 99 13 5
    Tony Wolters L 28 C 109 312 37 77 15 2 3 36 34 64 1 1
    Dom Nunez L 25 C 86 301 40 65 13 1 12 38 36 94 4 2
    Peter Mooney L 29 2B 101 330 39 83 17 3 5 33 31 57 4 2
    Elliot Soto R 30 SS 106 351 43 89 15 5 5 32 32 79 5 3
    Eric Stamets R 28 SS 99 326 38 71 14 2 8 33 24 102 10 1
    Brian Serven R 25 C 73 252 29 55 12 1 7 25 17 70 1 3
    Roberto Ramos L 25 1B 123 447 62 112 22 1 20 63 45 160 2 2
    Chris Rabago R 27 C 71 244 26 54 10 2 3 20 23 68 9 5
    Craig Gentry R 36 CF 82 196 21 50 7 2 2 16 15 45 10 4
    Ryan Vilade R 21 3B 132 526 66 131 20 6 9 47 43 128 15 10
    Tyler Nevin R 23 1B 128 479 60 124 23 3 13 53 45 104 5 2
    Alan Trejo R 24 SS 121 450 48 107 19 2 11 45 22 124 5 6
    Ian Desmond R 34 CF 127 441 64 113 21 4 16 63 34 116 9 4
    Noel Cuevas R 28 CF 101 335 41 89 14 5 7 36 21 72 5 5
    Drew Butera R 36 C 79 217 26 50 11 1 5 27 21 59 1 0
    Chris Iannetta R 37 C 72 199 24 42 10 0 7 25 28 69 0 0
    Mark Reynolds R 36 1B 108 298 39 68 13 0 14 50 36 106 2 0
    Sam Hilliard L 26 RF 141 539 74 128 22 5 22 68 47 197 22 11
    Vince Fernandez L 24 LF 98 348 45 73 15 3 14 43 36 159 4 5
    Bret Boswell L 25 2B 108 408 49 90 15 2 15 46 25 150 5 7
    Brian Mundell R 26 LF 118 437 55 115 25 2 9 44 40 94 2 2
    Vance Vizcaino L 25 LF 88 310 34 73 11 2 4 27 23 97 19 10
    Drew Weeks R 27 LF 116 409 52 101 18 5 13 50 27 102 6 8
    Mylz Jones R 26 RF 114 404 43 97 14 3 8 35 17 106 15 10
    Batters – Advanced
    Player PA BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP RC/27 Def WAR No. 1 Comp
    Nolan Arenado 646 .298 .367 .567 126 .269 .308 8.0 9 4.5 Aramis Ramirez
    Trevor Story 643 .274 .341 .540 113 .266 .337 7.0 6 3.9 Jhonny Peralta
    Charlie Blackmon 635 .298 .355 .519 112 .221 .331 7.0 -2 1.9 Gary Ward
    Brendan Rodgers 381 .275 .328 .453 90 .178 .324 5.5 3 1.1 Jose Vidro
    Ryan McMahon 531 .260 .328 .453 91 .193 .342 5.5 -2 1.0 Dale Sveum
    Colton Welker 480 .278 .324 .446 88 .169 .330 5.4 2 0.9 Scott Hodges
    David Dahl 428 .279 .333 .508 104 .228 .352 6.3 -1 0.9 Ivan Calderon
    Daniel Murphy 472 .296 .345 .480 101 .185 .320 6.4 -1 0.7 Jeff Conine
    Garrett Hampson 513 .266 .322 .397 77 .131 .330 5.0 2 0.7 Royce Clayton
    Yonathan Daza 526 .296 .331 .404 81 .108 .348 5.0 3 0.7 Skip Schumaker
    Yonder Alonso 424 .268 .351 .472 101 .204 .302 6.1 -2 0.6 Cecil Fielder
    Josh Fuentes 515 .257 .295 .425 75 .168 .325 4.5 7 0.6 Jose Leon
    Raimel Tapia 496 .289 .325 .443 88 .154 .349 5.5 3 0.6 R.J. Reynolds
    Tony Wolters 357 .247 .330 .337 66 .090 .302 3.9 7 0.6 Dennis Anderson
    Dom Nunez 344 .216 .303 .385 69 .169 .272 4.0 4 0.5 Blake Barthol
    Peter Mooney 367 .252 .319 .367 69 .115 .291 4.2 5 0.3 Tim Cullen
    Elliot Soto 390 .254 .318 .368 69 .114 .315 4.2 2 0.3 Kevin Stocker
    Eric Stamets 362 .218 .279 .347 54 .129 .292 3.6 8 0.3 Erick Monzon
    Brian Serven 279 .218 .275 .357 55 .139 .274 3.2 8 0.2 Jeff Winchester
    Roberto Ramos 500 .251 .324 .438 86 .188 .345 5.1 1 0.2 Joe Vitiello
    Chris Rabago 273 .221 .293 .316 51 .094 .295 3.2 6 0.1 Luis Taveras
    Craig Gentry 216 .255 .313 .342 62 .087 .322 4.0 3 0.1 Willie McGee
    Ryan Vilade 586 .249 .307 .361 65 .112 .314 3.9 6 -0.1 Justin Sellers
    Tyler Nevin 530 .259 .325 .401 78 .142 .307 4.8 2 -0.1 Alvin Moore
    Alan Trejo 484 .238 .278 .362 57 .124 .305 3.4 6 -0.2 Mark Farris
    Ian Desmond 483 .256 .313 .431 82 .175 .314 4.9 -9 -0.2 Jalal Leach
    Noel Cuevas 362 .266 .313 .400 75 .134 .320 4.4 -3 -0.3 Bubba Crosby
    Drew Butera 243 .230 .302 .359 63 .129 .294 3.9 -4 -0.4 Joe Oliver
    Chris Iannetta 232 .211 .315 .367 68 .156 .285 4.0 -5 -0.4 Chad Kreuter
    Mark Reynolds 339 .228 .313 .413 77 .185 .303 4.6 -2 -0.4 Jeff Manto
    Sam Hilliard 592 .237 .300 .419 75 .182 .331 4.5 1 -0.4 Brad Snyder
    Vince Fernandez 390 .210 .290 .391 66 .181 .337 3.7 5 -0.4 Brent Gjesdal
    Bret Boswell 441 .221 .271 .377 58 .157 .309 3.3 3 -0.6 Travis Metcalf
    Brian Mundell 484 .263 .327 .391 77 .128 .317 4.6 -5 -0.7 Tim McWilliam
    Vance Vizcaino 339 .235 .291 .323 52 .087 .330 3.3 5 -0.7 Tony Triplett
    Drew Weeks 446 .247 .300 .411 73 .164 .299 4.1 -7 -1.2 Greg Connors
    Mylz Jones 430 .240 .275 .349 53 .109 .307 3.3 2 -1.4 Tonayne Brown
    Pitchers – Standard
    Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO
    German Marquez R 25 12 7 4.00 30 30 180.0 170 80 25 42 190
    Jon Gray R 28 12 8 4.28 27 27 155.7 149 74 21 53 160
    Kyle Freeland L 27 10 9 4.95 28 28 147.3 155 81 22 55 112
    Jeff Hoffman R 27 10 9 5.14 30 28 145.3 147 83 22 62 137
    Chi Chi Gonzalez R 28 8 8 5.62 27 24 133.0 144 83 22 63 97
    Scott Oberg R 30 4 2 3.47 55 0 57.0 50 22 5 21 58
    Antonio Santos R 23 8 8 5.49 27 27 142.7 168 87 27 39 107
    Antonio Senzatela R 25 10 10 5.54 31 28 144.7 164 89 21 57 95
    Jairo Diaz R 29 6 4 3.91 65 0 66.7 61 29 6 28 68
    Brandon Gold R 25 9 9 5.62 26 26 141.0 178 88 27 31 90
    Peter Lambert R 23 7 8 5.75 29 29 145.7 170 93 29 45 99
    Heath Holder R 27 6 5 4.99 34 7 83.0 85 46 12 38 78
    Wes Parsons R 27 4 4 5.13 26 9 79.0 86 45 12 34 67
    Phillip Diehl L 25 3 2 4.54 53 1 69.3 68 35 11 28 71
    Rico Garcia R 26 8 9 5.64 26 24 119.7 134 75 22 54 103
    Carlos Estevez R 27 3 2 4.18 67 0 66.7 62 31 9 25 74
    Chad Bettis R 31 4 4 5.48 29 13 90.3 103 55 15 32 63
    Ashton Goudeau R 27 6 6 5.84 22 15 81.7 93 53 18 27 64
    Jack Wynkoop L 26 9 10 5.98 24 24 131.0 169 87 27 24 70
    D.J. Johnson R 30 3 2 4.66 41 0 46.3 45 24 5 26 46
    Chris Rusin L 33 3 3 5.32 32 6 64.3 72 38 10 23 44
    Matt Pierpont R 29 3 3 4.50 35 0 46.0 46 23 6 20 42
    Seunghwan Oh R 37 4 3 4.50 47 0 44.0 44 22 8 12 45
    Wade Davis R 34 4 3 4.93 51 0 45.7 41 25 7 27 50
    Matt Dennis R 25 7 8 6.02 30 21 125.7 155 84 23 49 79
    Bryan Shaw R 32 3 3 5.07 63 0 60.3 63 34 8 26 52
    Ben Bowden L 25 3 2 4.78 49 0 49.0 43 26 8 30 64
    Alexander Guillen R 24 3 2 4.91 42 0 69.7 68 38 11 31 72
    Jose Mujica R 24 3 4 6.12 11 10 50.0 63 34 10 20 24
    James Pazos L 29 3 2 5.13 57 0 59.7 62 34 9 29 53
    Reid Humphreys R 25 2 1 5.01 37 0 32.3 32 18 5 17 32
    Jake McGee L 33 2 1 5.08 50 0 44.3 47 25 8 14 39
    Yency Almonte R 26 4 3 5.14 66 0 70.0 71 40 10 39 62
    Mike Dunn L 35 1 1 5.06 38 0 26.7 27 15 4 14 25
    Logan Cozart R 27 4 4 5.30 46 1 56.0 62 33 8 25 44
    Ty Culbreth L 26 5 6 6.25 20 18 89.3 115 62 18 30 51
    Joe Harvey R 28 2 2 5.55 45 0 48.7 48 30 9 30 50
    Harrison Musgrave L 28 3 4 6.06 30 8 65.3 72 44 14 31 55
    Mitch Horacek L 28 3 3 5.62 45 0 49.7 51 31 8 32 48
    Jordan Foley R 26 4 4 5.88 41 2 56.7 59 37 9 40 53
    Rayan Gonzalez R 29 2 2 5.44 41 0 46.3 48 28 6 30 39
    Tim Melville R 30 7 9 6.42 25 20 108.0 123 77 25 53 86
    Pat Dean L 31 6 8 6.75 18 16 89.3 119 67 21 26 47
    Evan Grills L 28 4 5 6.75 17 10 68.0 87 51 18 22 48
    Justin Lawrence R 25 2 3 5.98 44 0 40.7 42 27 5 35 33
    Scott Griggs R 29 2 2 6.05 44 0 41.7 45 28 7 27 36
    Jesus Tinoco R 25 3 4 5.86 62 0 70.7 78 46 13 39 56
    Ryan Castellani R 24 5 7 6.86 18 18 81.3 94 62 17 57 62
    Pitchers – Advanced
    Player K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ ERA- FIP WAR No. 1 Comp
    German Marquez 9.5 2.1 1.3 5.6% 25.4% .300 123 81 3.57 3.8 Tom Bradley
    Jon Gray 9.3 3.1 1.2 8.0% 24.1% .301 115 87 3.90 2.9 Bob Rush
    Kyle Freeland 6.8 3.4 1.3 8.5% 17.3% .294 99 101 4.72 1.8 Ken Brett
    Jeff Hoffman 8.5 3.8 1.4 9.7% 21.4% .302 96 105 4.54 1.5 Brett Laxton
    Chi Chi Gonzalez 6.6 4.3 1.5 10.5% 16.1% .295 91 110 5.29 1.1 Steve Hargan
    Scott Oberg 9.2 3.3 0.8 8.8% 24.2% .292 141 71 3.39 1.1 Greg Minton
    Antonio Santos 6.8 2.5 1.7 6.2% 16.9% .313 90 112 4.96 1.0 Rick Wise
    Antonio Senzatela 5.9 3.5 1.3 8.8% 14.7% .304 89 113 4.94 1.0 Steve Hargan
    Jairo Diaz 9.2 3.8 0.8 9.7% 23.6% .301 126 80 3.57 0.9 Sean Green
    Brandon Gold 5.7 2.0 1.7 4.9% 14.3% .319 87 114 5.05 0.8 A.J. Sager
    Peter Lambert 6.1 2.8 1.8 6.9% 15.3% .301 86 117 5.34 0.7 Nate Cornejo
    Heath Holder 8.5 4.1 1.3 10.2% 21.0% .307 99 101 4.55 0.7 Clem Labine
    Wes Parsons 7.6 3.9 1.4 9.6% 18.9% .311 96 104 4.75 0.7 Marino Pieretti
    Phillip Diehl 9.2 3.6 1.4 9.2% 23.4% .302 113 89 4.41 0.7 Ed Olwine
    Rico Garcia 7.7 4.1 1.7 9.9% 18.9% .312 87 115 5.20 0.7 Jake Joseph
    Carlos Estevez 10.0 3.4 1.2 8.8% 26.0% .303 117 85 3.84 0.7 Jerry Dipoto
    Chad Bettis 6.3 3.2 1.5 7.9% 15.6% .304 90 112 5.01 0.5 Sandy Consuegra
    Ashton Goudeau 7.1 3.0 2.0 7.4% 17.6% .300 88 114 5.47 0.5 Mark Johnson
    Jack Wynkoop 4.8 1.6 1.9 4.1% 12.0% .313 82 122 5.34 0.4 Bobby Livingston
    D.J. Johnson 8.9 5.1 1.0 12.4% 21.9% .308 110 91 4.28 0.3 Tippy Martinez
    Chris Rusin 6.2 3.2 1.4 8.0% 15.4% .301 92 108 4.91 0.3 Joe Gibbon
    Matt Pierpont 8.2 3.9 1.2 9.8% 20.6% .301 109 92 4.35 0.3 Ed Farmer
    Seunghwan Oh 9.2 2.5 1.6 6.4% 24.1% .300 109 92 4.32 0.3 Dennis Lamp
    Wade Davis 9.9 5.3 1.4 13.2% 24.5% .288 104 96 4.76 0.3 Don Aase
    Matt Dennis 5.7 3.5 1.6 8.5% 13.7% .314 82 122 5.47 0.2 Mark Cahill
    Bryan Shaw 7.8 3.9 1.2 9.7% 19.4% .306 101 99 4.47 0.2 Tom Timmermann
    Ben Bowden 11.8 5.5 1.5 13.7% 29.2% .304 103 97 4.53 0.2 Armando Almanza
    Alexander Guillen 9.3 4.0 1.4 10.1% 23.5% .302 100 100 4.50 0.2 Keith Shepherd
    Jose Mujica 4.3 3.6 1.8 8.6% 10.3% .303 84 119 6.02 0.2 Joe Coleman
    James Pazos 8.0 4.4 1.4 10.7% 19.6% .303 100 100 4.82 0.2 Jim Roland
    Reid Humphreys 8.9 4.7 1.4 11.6% 21.9% .300 98 102 4.79 0.1 Newt Kimball
    Jake McGee 7.9 2.8 1.6 7.3% 20.2% .300 97 103 4.71 0.1 Steve Hamilton
    Yency Almonte 8.0 5.0 1.3 12.2% 19.4% .299 96 105 4.94 0.1 Joe Hudson
    Mike Dunn 8.4 4.7 1.4 11.7% 20.8% .303 97 103 4.83 0.0 Marshall Bridges
    Logan Cozart 7.1 4.0 1.3 9.8% 17.3% .310 93 108 4.81 0.0 Scott Munter
    Ty Culbreth 5.1 3.0 1.8 7.3% 12.4% .316 79 127 5.67 0.0 Lee Guetterman
    Joe Harvey 9.2 5.5 1.7 13.4% 22.3% .295 92 108 5.38 0.0 Jake Robbins
    Harrison Musgrave 7.6 4.3 1.9 10.4% 18.5% .299 81 123 5.71 -0.1 Doug Johns
    Mitch Horacek 8.7 5.8 1.4 13.8% 20.7% .305 91 110 5.27 -0.1 Tom Doyle
    Jordan Foley 8.4 6.4 1.4 14.9% 19.7% .307 87 115 5.49 -0.1 Ken Wright
    Rayan Gonzalez 7.6 5.8 1.2 13.8% 18.0% .302 90 111 5.12 -0.1 Ted Abernathy
    Tim Melville 7.2 4.4 2.1 10.6% 17.3% .299 77 131 6.07 -0.2 Dick Fowler
    Pat Dean 4.7 2.6 2.1 6.4% 11.5% .315 76 132 6.06 -0.2 Lee Gronkiewicz
    Evan Grills 6.4 2.9 2.4 7.1% 15.4% .314 76 132 6.18 -0.2 Jamie Walker
    Justin Lawrence 7.3 7.7 1.1 17.6% 16.6% .301 82 122 5.74 -0.3 Dave Cole
    Scott Griggs 7.8 5.8 1.5 13.7% 18.3% .306 81 123 5.58 -0.3 Gary Wagner
    Jesus Tinoco 7.1 5.0 1.7 11.9% 17.1% .301 84 119 5.64 -0.4 Ron Willis
    Ryan Castellani 6.9 6.3 1.9 14.5% 15.8% .304 72 140 6.48 -0.4 Jake Joseph

    Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players that are unsigned, players who will miss 2020 due to injury, and players who were released in 2019. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball to form a ska-cowpunk Luxembourgian bubblegum pop-death metal band, he’s still listed here intentionally.

    Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

    For more information about ZiPS, please refer to this article.

    var SERVER_DATA = Object.assign(SERVER_DATA || );

    Get the Fantasy Baseball Lineup Builder right here

  • Sabermetrics news: The Brewers trade for Omar Narváez

    Posted 6 hours ago

    Photo by Stephen Brashear/Getty Images

    The Brewers acquire Omar Narváez; the bounce-back free agent market; the value of non-tenders

    FanGraphs | Jake Mailhot: The Brewers failed to bring back Yasmani Grandal, but they got a semi-decent replacement on the non-tender market with Omar Narváez, acquired for Adam Hill and a competitive balance pick. While certainly seeming to round into offensive form, defense will be a worry, as his framing alone could cost the Brewers ~20 runs on that alone.

    Baseball Prospectus | Rob Arthur ($): $400 million in contracts have been doled out as of yesterday, which is more than both 2017 and 2018 at this point, which were basically half. Sure, the big players will get their money as they usually do, but long-term deals for the likes of Grandal, Zack Wheeler, and Mike Moustakas is pretty refreshing after the last few years.

    The Athletic | Eno Sarris ($): Non-tenders are an interesting case in value. While someone like Kevin Pillar is worth, say, a win and a half in 2020, that’s not worth exactly $10 million like it is on the free agent market. Teams in the aggregate pay only ~$5 million per win, making smaller deals more attractive for players on the cusp of average.

    Get the ultimate Fantasy Baseball Lineup Builder Here